How OddsEngine works.

01What it is

Polymarket runs a market every day on how hot it gets in cities like Paris, Seoul, Chicago or Madrid. Each market is split into temperature fields: 17°C, 18°C, 19°C and so on. Whatever the official weather station reports at the end of the day wins.

OddsEngine reads several weather models for the exact station the market uses, turns them into a probability for every field and compares that with the price. Most markets are priced about right, so most of the time the engine stays quiet. When the price is clearly lower than what the engine expects, it makes a call.

That is the whole product. It does the math, it posts the call before the station reports, and it scores itself in public.

02How to read a call

• Block: the fields the engine buys together. If the official high lands in any of them, the call hits.
• Price: what the whole block costs, in cents per dollar of payout. 77c means you pay 77 cents and get 1 dollar back if it hits.
• Engine says: how likely the engine thinks the block is to hit, after its own safety discount (see how the engine works).
• Pays: what you get back per dollar if the call hits. 1.30x means 1 dollar becomes 1.30.

A call only goes out when the engine's number is clearly above the price. In the app, holders also see how to split a stake across the fields, so every field pays the same if it wins.

03How results are scored

Every call is saved with the time it went out, the block and the price. After the station reports, the result is posted, no matter how it went.

• The free call of the day gets its result as a quote of the original post on X and as a reply under the call on Telegram. You always see the call and the result together.
• Calls that were only in the app are collected once a day into one summary post: every city, every hit, every miss.
• The running record in every result counts all calls since the current rules started on Sep 25, 2026.

The full list, with block, price and outcome for each call, is in the app under Record. Nothing gets deleted.

04$ODDS is the key

$ODDS is an access token on Robinhood Chain. Hold enough of it in your wallet and the app shows you every call live, the moment it fires. Without it you get one free call a day plus all the results.

No staking, no lockups, no subscription. The app checks your wallet balance about every two minutes. If you sell below the line, the calls lock again.

05Tiers

The value is counted in dollars at the current $ODDS price. To stop people flipping in and out on every small price move, a tier you reached stays yours as long as you still hold at least 70% of its line.

06Buy $ODDS on Torch

1. Set up a wallet you control and add Robinhood Chain (next section).
2. Get a little ETH onto Robinhood Chain, for example with the Deposit button on Torch or a bridge you trust.
3. Open app.torchpad.fun, connect your wallet and buy $ODDS. Check the contract address against the one above.
4. Keep the tokens in your own wallet. If you bought inside Torch's built in wallet, send them to your own wallet first. The app can only check a wallet you can sign with.

07Wallet setup

Use one EVM wallet for everything: it holds your $ODDS on Robinhood Chain and places your bets on Polymarket on Polygon. Same address on both.

MetaMask and Rabby work best, because they can show tokens on Robinhood Chain. Phantom can sign, but it does not show Robinhood Chain balances.

Add Robinhood Chain to my wallet

08Verify in the app

1. Open public.oddsengine.live. On a phone, open it inside your wallet's built in browser.
2. Tap Verify $ODDS with your wallet.
3. Your wallet asks you to sign a short text with your address and a one time code. Signing is free. It sends no transaction and moves no tokens.
4. The app reads your $ODDS balance on Robinhood Chain and unlocks your tier. The session lasts 7 days.

09Bet on Polymarket

OddsEngine never holds your money. You place the bet yourself on Polymarket, from your own wallet.

1. Open polymarket.com, connect the same wallet and sign in once. Without that first sign in, orders from the app are refused.
2. Deposit USDC so you have a trading balance, plus a few cents of POL on Polygon for gas.
3. In the app, open a call. Each field links straight to its market, or use the buy button to place the whole block in one go.

Polymarket is not available in every country. Check that it is legal where you live.

10How the engine works

The forecast

For every market the engine pulls ensemble forecasts from several global weather models (ICON, GFS and ECMWF) for the exact airport or station Polymarket settles on. Each ensemble member is one possible version of tomorrow. Together they give a spread of possible daily highs, which the engine turns into a probability for every temperature field. Near the end of the day it also folds in what the station has already measured, because the daily high can only go up.

Learning from its own misses

Every model runs a little warm or cold at some stations, and that changes with the seasons. Once a day the engine looks back at the last 21 days, compares its forecast with what each station really reported, and adjusts the correction for that city. A city needs enough results before its correction changes, so one odd day does not throw it off.

The safety discount

When you look at dozens of blocks and keep the best one, you tend to keep the ones where the forecast is a bit too optimistic. The engine knows this and subtracts a discount from every number before it decides. The size of that discount follows the real record: if recent calls hit less often than claimed, the discount grows.

When it stays quiet

No call goes out when the order book is too thin, the price is too high for the payout to make sense, the market disagrees with the engine by an extreme margin, or the station is one where the models are known to struggle. Most days that means only a few calls.

11FAQ

12Risks

• Prediction markets can lose you your whole stake. A call that misses pays nothing.
• Past results do not predict future ones. Weather and markets change.
• Prices on Polymarket move. The price in a call may be gone when you get there.
• Weather stations can report late, report a different value than expected, or be corrected afterwards. The market settles on what Polymarket's rules say.
• $ODDS can lose value. Only hold what you are fine with losing.
• Smart contracts, bridges and wallets carry their own risks.

13Terms

OddsEngine publishes information about weather forecasts and market prices. Nothing on the website, in the app, on X or on Telegram is financial, investment or legal advice, and nothing is an offer to buy or sell anything. You decide what you do with it, and you carry the risk.

OddsEngine never holds user funds and never places trades for you. Bets are placed by you, from your own wallet, on Polymarket, under Polymarket's terms. It is your job to check that using Polymarket and holding $ODDS is legal where you live.

$ODDS gives access to features of the app for as long as you hold it. It carries no ownership, no share of revenue and no claim against anyone. Tier lines, features and the free call can change. The service is provided as is, without any guarantee that it is available, correct or complete.